{
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  "holidayMethod": {
    "selectedBeforeCalculation": [
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      {
        "name": "Independence Day",
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        "day": 4
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        "month": 11,
        "day": 11
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      {
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    "matchedOffsetsDays": [
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      -7,
      7,
      14
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    "eventCohort": "Actual calendar date in 2000–2014, with all four control dates present in SSA; same retained cohort for every sensitivity comparison.",
    "mainComparison": "100 × (1 − sum(event births) / sum(mean of each event’s four control-day birth counts)). Positive values mean fewer event births.",
    "sensitivity": "Remove control dates flagged as another actual or standard observed federal holiday; average surviving controls within each event, then give each event equal weight. Also compare ±7 only, ±14 only, and adjacent ±1 dates in the same complete-window cohort.",
    "limitations": "Selected historical dates only; weekday matching does not remove every seasonal/calendar influence, nearby birth displacement, or administrative difference. Calendar flags do not measure staffing or medical decisions. No causal estimate or population forecast."
  },
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