How rare is a December 26 birthday?

December 26 ranks 360th in historical U.S. births. Compare the day after Christmas with nearby dates and years when Christmas was observed on Monday.

Reviewed

December 26 is a rare birthday in these U.S. records from 1994 through 2014. It ranks #360 of 366 dates by total births, where #1 means most common. Only Christmas Eve and Christmas Day have lower December totals.

The records contain 201,577 December 26 births: 0.235% of the selected sample, or about 1 in 425. This is a historical U.S. birth share, not a worldwide probability or a count of living people.

Historical U.S. birth records

December 26, beside other birthdays

Average recorded births each time a date occurred, 1994 through 2014.

Commonness rank
360 / 366
Share of recorded births
0.235 %
Recorded births
201,577

Bars start at zero. Rank 1 means most common and uses total births across all 366 dates. The bars use births per actual occurrence; February 29 appeared five times, while the other dates appeared 21 times.

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How uncommon is the day after Christmas?

December 26 ranks 29 of the month's 31 dates. It averaged 9,598.9 recorded births across 21 actual occurrences. The dates around Christmas have different totals, even though they are close together.

December 26 and selected birthday dates. U.S. records, 1994 through 2014. Commonness rank 1 is most common. Ranks compare all 366 dates.
DateRecorded birthsCommonness rankBirth share
December 23218,0513510.254%
December 24170,1663630.199%
December 25138,6283650.162%
December 26201,5773600.235%
December 27246,214560.287%
January 2196,4813610.229%

The December guide has the full month ranking. The Christmas Eve and Christmas Day pages examine those dates separately.

Does the low count remain after matching weekdays?

In the SSA 2000 through 2014 records, December 26 was below its nearby same-weekday mean in all 15 years. Its pooled difference was -19.1%.

December 26 by year. SSA U.S. records, 2000 through 2014. Available same-year, same-weekday dates 7 and 14 days before or after the target; actual/standard observed federal holidays, Christmas Eve, December 26 and the Friday after Thanksgiving excluded. Each year's eligible dates are averaged first; the overall difference divides summed target births by summed annual control means. Differences describe this comparison, not causes.
YearWeekdayRecorded birthsNearby meanDifference
2000Tuesday10,39513,728-24.3%
2001Wednesday11,04013,144-16.0%
2002Thursday11,24213,257.5-15.2%
2003Friday10,43113,088.5-20.3%
2004Sunday7,0877,600.5-6.8%
2005Monday8,50512,952-34.3%
2006Tuesday11,08714,600.5-24.1%
2007Wednesday12,30614,423.5-14.7%
2008Friday10,89013,455-19.1%
2009Saturday7,1728,259-13.2%
2010Sunday6,7967,195.5-5.6%
2011Monday8,03912,397.5-35.2%
2012Wednesday11,36213,758-17.4%
2013Thursday11,37512,902.5-11.8%
2014Friday10,38612,357.5-16.0%

The eligible comparison dates are December 12 and 19 in each year. They fall exactly fourteen and seven days earlier, so each shares December 26's weekday. Dates seven or fourteen days later are in January of the following year and are outside this same-year comparison.

The one-week-only difference is -20.7%; the two-week-only difference is -17.5%. Both show fewer births on December 26, though the size of the gap changes. Using only earlier dates also leaves possible late-December differences beyond weekdays, so these percentages are descriptive comparisons rather than a measured holiday effect.

What about years when Christmas is observed on December 26?

OPM's standard federal calendar usually moves a Sunday holiday to Monday for employees with a Monday through Friday schedule. December 26 was that Christmas observance date in 2005, 2011.

In those 2 events, the combined difference from matched nearby dates was -34.7%. The other 13 years had a difference of -16.6%.

December 26 calendar groups. SSA U.S. records, 2000 through 2014. Means divide recorded births by actual occurrences; each group's difference compares its own years with their nearby matched-weekday control means. Small groups do not establish a cause.
Calendar groupYearsOccurrencesBirths per occurrenceControl meanDifference
Target is the federal observed date2005, 201128,27212,674.8-34.7%
Other years2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 20141310,120.712,136.2-16.6%

The date is lower in both groups. These observance rules apply to federal employees. They do not tell us every hospital's schedule. We cannot tell from birth totals why deliveries occurred on December 26 or quantify the role of scheduling.

These records also cannot answer a Boxing Day question about another country. A holiday name does not make U.S. counts representative of that country's births.

Sources and comparison method

The ranking and share use FiveThirtyEight's daily U.S. birth files. We select CDC/NCHS 1994 through 1999 and SSA 2000 through 2014, excluding overlapping CDC years. Administrative coverage differs, so all annual weekday and observance comparisons use SSA alone.

Each year's comparison mean gives December 12 and 19 equal weight. The pooled percentage divides summed December 26 births by summed annual means, then subtracts one. Holiday-sensitive candidate controls are excluded; the date-analysis download records exact eligibility and boundary exclusions.

Read the methodology for definitions, or check December 26 and compare it with a friend.