No. October 24 has more recorded births than most dates in these historical U.S. records. It ranks #127 of 366 dates by total births from 1994 through 2014. Rank #1 means most common.
October 24 had 237,881 births across 21 occurrences, or 11,328 births per occurrence. That is 0.278% of the 85,712,738-birth sample, or about 1 in 360 recorded births.
Within October, October 24 ranks tenth of 31 dates.
Five of its 21 occurrences fell on a Saturday or Sunday. The average across all dates is 6.0. Weekend days have fewer recorded births, so this calendar mix can raise its total. This comes from the calendar in these years, not from the date itself.
Does October 24 differ from nearby same-weekday dates?
It depends on which controls we use. In SSA 2000–2014, the primary comparison gives +2.8%. With only the 7-day controls, the result is +6.6%. With only the 14-day controls, it is -1.1%.
Because the sign changes, these results do not show clearly that October 24 has more or fewer births than nearby dates.
In the primary comparison, October 24 was above its controls in fourteen years and below them in one.
Baseline ranks use historical U.S. CDC/NCHS and SSA records, 1994–2014. The percentage differences use SSA 2000–2014 alone. Each table row compares October 24 with controls from the same year.
| Comparison | Years | Control observations | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 and 14 days, holidays excluded (primary) | 15 | 58 | +2.8% |
| 7 days only | 15 | 30 | +6.6% |
| 14 days only | 15 | 28 | -1.1% |
| 7 and 14 days, no holiday exclusions | 15 | 60 | +2.6% |
How were the comparison dates chosen?
The primary controls are October 10, October 17, October 31, and November 7 in the same year. Each is 7 or 14 days from October 24, so it falls on the same weekday.
In some years, a planned control falls on Columbus Day. We remove that control under the standard observed federal holiday rules. The year keeps its other controls.
The primary and 7-day comparisons include October 31, which ranks #356 of 366 dates in the baseline. The Halloween study finds fewer October 31 births than its own controls in every SSA year. October 24 had 14.2% more births than October 31. It had more births than October 31 in all 15 years. Without October 31, the primary controls give -0.8%. October 24 was above them in four of 15 years.
By five-year period, the primary differences are +2.8% for 2000–2004, +3.1% for 2005–2009, and +2.4% for 2010–2014.
To combine the years, we divide the summed target births by the summed annual control means. Then we subtract one and multiply by 100. The result is not an average of annual percentages.
Does the October 24 rank change over time?
Somewhat, but less than most dates. We ranked 365 recurring dates by SSA births in each five-year period. October 24 placed #96 in 2000–2004, #88 in 2005–2009, and #136 in 2010–2014. The three ranks span 48 places.
The median span for all 365 recurring dates is 159 places. This span is below that median.
Each period has one weekend occurrence of October 24, so the weekend mix does not explain the movement.
These ranks use raw birth counts. The ranking-stability study also compares annual shares and weekday-relative scores for every date.
Sources and limits
Baseline totals and ranks use FiveThirtyEight’s pinned U.S. birth files. We use CDC/NCHS for 1994–1999 and SSA for 2000–2014, so no year comes from both sources. Annual comparisons use SSA alone.
The source series have different administrative coverage. These records do not describe worldwide births, everyone alive today, or current birth rates.
The daily totals do not record delivery methods or scheduling decisions. Weekday matching does not remove every seasonal difference. Federal holiday rules identify calendar dates, not hospital schedules.
Use the October guide for the full month ranking. Compare the nearby October 31 and October 13 studies.
The methodology explains ranks and shares. Use the birthday checker to compare another date.