No. October 3 is one of the more common birthdays in these historical U.S. records. It ranks #53 of 366 dates by total births from 1994 through 2014. Rank #1 means most common.
October 3 had 246,263 births across 21 occurrences, or 11,727 births per occurrence. That is 0.287% of the 85,712,738-birth sample, or about 1 in 348 recorded births.
Only one October date has more births. October 3 ranks second of the 31 October dates.
Five of its 21 occurrences fell on a Saturday or Sunday. The average across all dates is 6.0. Weekend days have fewer recorded births, so this calendar mix can raise its total. This comes from the calendar in these years, not from the date itself.
Does October 3 differ from nearby same-weekday dates?
October 3 has slightly fewer births than its controls in every planned comparison. The primary comparison gives -1.1%, and the range is -1.0% to -1.4%.
Before rounding, the fourteen-day comparison and the version without holiday exclusions are both just under 1% in size. They miss the planned threshold, so we treat the result as weak.
In the primary comparison, October 3 was above its controls in two years and below them in thirteen.
Baseline ranks use historical U.S. CDC/NCHS and SSA records, 1994–2014. The percentage differences use SSA 2000–2014 alone. Each table row compares October 3 with controls from the same year.
| Comparison | Years | Control observations | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 and 14 days, holidays excluded (primary) | 15 | 58 | -1.1% |
| 7 days only | 15 | 28 | -1.4% |
| 14 days only | 15 | 30 | -1.0% |
| 7 and 14 days, no holiday exclusions | 15 | 60 | -1.0% |
How were the comparison dates chosen?
The primary controls are September 19, September 26, October 10, and October 17 in the same year. Each is 7 or 14 days from October 3, so it falls on the same weekday.
In some years, a planned control falls on Columbus Day. We remove that control under the standard observed federal holiday rules. The year keeps its other controls.
By five-year period, the primary differences are -1.0% for 2000–2004, -1.5% for 2005–2009, and -0.9% for 2010–2014.
To combine the years, we divide the summed target births by the summed annual control means. Then we subtract one and multiply by 100. The result is not an average of annual percentages.
Is the October 3 rank stable over time?
Yes. We ranked 365 recurring dates by SSA births in each five-year period. October 3 placed #54 in 2000–2004, #42 in 2005–2009, and #66 in 2010–2014. The three ranks span 24 places.
That span is narrow. The median span for all 365 recurring dates is 159 places.
These ranks use raw birth counts. The ranking-stability study also compares annual shares and weekday-relative scores for every date.
Sources and limits
Baseline totals and ranks use FiveThirtyEight’s pinned U.S. birth files. We use CDC/NCHS for 1994–1999 and SSA for 2000–2014, so no year comes from both sources. Annual comparisons use SSA alone.
The source series have different administrative coverage. These records do not describe worldwide births, everyone alive today, or current birth rates.
The daily totals do not record delivery methods or scheduling decisions. Weekday matching does not remove every seasonal difference. Federal holiday rules identify calendar dates, not hospital schedules.
Use the October guide for the full month ranking. See also the October 13 and October 31 studies.
The methodology explains ranks and shares. Use the birthday checker to compare another date.