Yes, compared with most dates. November 23 is among the less common birthdays in these historical U.S. records. It ranks #358 of 366 dates by total births from 1994 through 2014. Rank #1 means most common.
November 23 had 208,301 births across 21 occurrences, or 9,919 births per occurrence. That is 0.243% of the 85,712,738-birth sample, or about 1 in 411 recorded births.
Only one November date has fewer births. November 23 ranks #29 of 30 in November.
Seven of its 21 occurrences fell on a Saturday or Sunday. The average across all dates is 6.0. Weekend days have fewer recorded births, so this calendar mix can lower its total. This comes from the calendar in these years, not from the date itself.
What happens in Thanksgiving years?
November 23 can be Thanksgiving or the day after. In SSA 2000–2014, it was Thanksgiving in 2000 and 2006, when it had 41.1% fewer births than nearby same-weekday dates.
It was the day after Thanksgiving in 2001, 2007, and 2012. In those years, it had 25.0% fewer births than nearby same-weekday dates.
In the other 10 years, November 23 had 1.6% more births than its controls.
These groups are small. They describe calendar overlap in these records, not the reasons for any birth date.
Across all 15 years, the primary comparison gives -11.3%. With only the 7-day or only the 14-day controls, the results are -11.8% and -10.7%.
Baseline ranks use historical U.S. CDC/NCHS and SSA records, 1994–2014. The percentage differences use SSA 2000–2014 alone. Each table row compares November 23 with controls from the same year.
| Comparison | Years | Control observations | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 and 14 days, holidays excluded (primary) | 15 | 60 | -11.3% |
| 7 days only | 15 | 30 | -11.8% |
| 14 days only | 15 | 30 | -10.7% |
| 7 and 14 days, no holiday exclusions | 15 | 60 | -11.3% |
| Day after Thanksgiving years only | 3 | 12 | -25.0% |
| Thanksgiving Day years only | 2 | 8 | -41.1% |
| Other years only | 10 | 40 | +1.6% |
How were the comparison dates chosen?
The primary controls are November 9, November 16, November 30, and December 7 in the same year. Each is 7 or 14 days from November 23, so it falls on the same weekday.
None of these controls fell on an excluded holiday. We exclude holidays under the standard observed federal holiday rules. We also exclude Christmas Eve, December 26, and the Friday after Thanksgiving.
By five-year period, the primary differences are -12.0% for 2000–2004, -16.5% for 2005–2009, and -4.5% for 2010–2014.
To combine the years, we divide the summed target births by the summed annual control means. Then we subtract one and multiply by 100. The result is not an average of annual percentages.
Is the November 23 rank stable over time?
Yes. We ranked 365 recurring dates by SSA births in each five-year period. November 23 placed #361 in 2000–2004, #359 in 2005–2009, and #341 in 2010–2014. The three ranks span 20 places.
That span is narrow. The median span for all 365 recurring dates is 159 places.
These ranks use raw birth counts. The ranking-stability study also compares annual shares and weekday-relative scores for every date.
Sources and limits
Baseline totals and ranks use FiveThirtyEight’s pinned U.S. birth files. We use CDC/NCHS for 1994–1999 and SSA for 2000–2014, so no year comes from both sources. Annual comparisons use SSA alone.
The source series have different administrative coverage. These records do not describe worldwide births, everyone alive today, or current birth rates.
The daily totals do not record delivery methods or scheduling decisions. Weekday matching does not remove every seasonal difference. Federal holiday rules identify calendar dates, not hospital schedules.
Use the November guide for the full month ranking. Compare the nearby November 26 and November 27 studies.
The Thanksgiving birth study follows every actual Thanksgiving.
The methodology explains ranks and shares. Use the birthday checker to compare another date.