Yes, compared with most dates. November 28 is among the less common birthdays in these historical U.S. records. It ranks #353 of 366 dates by total births from 1994 through 2014. Rank #1 means most common.
November 28 had 212,951 births across 21 occurrences, or 10,141 births per occurrence. That is 0.248% of the 85,712,738-birth sample, or about 1 in 402 recorded births.
It ranks #25 of the 30 November dates.
Five of its 21 occurrences fell on a Saturday or Sunday. The average across all dates is 6.0. Weekend days have fewer recorded births, so this calendar mix can raise its total. This comes from the calendar in these years, not from the date itself.
What happens in Thanksgiving years?
November 28 can be Thanksgiving or the day after. In SSA 2000–2014, it was Thanksgiving in 2002 and 2013, when it had 41.9% fewer births than nearby same-weekday dates.
It was the day after Thanksgiving in 2003, 2008, and 2014. In those years, it had 26.4% fewer births than nearby same-weekday dates.
In the other 10 years, November 28 had 0.5% more births than its controls.
These groups are small. They describe calendar overlap in these records, not the reasons for any birth date.
Across all 15 years, the primary comparison gives -11.2%. With only the 7-day or only the 14-day controls, the results are -11.1% and -11.4%.
Baseline ranks use historical U.S. CDC/NCHS and SSA records, 1994–2014. The percentage differences use SSA 2000–2014 alone. Each table row compares November 28 with controls from the same year.
| Comparison | Years | Control observations | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 and 14 days, holidays excluded (primary) | 15 | 60 | -11.2% |
| 7 days only | 15 | 30 | -11.1% |
| 14 days only | 15 | 30 | -11.4% |
| 7 and 14 days, no holiday exclusions | 15 | 60 | -11.2% |
| Day after Thanksgiving years only | 3 | 12 | -26.4% |
| Thanksgiving Day years only | 2 | 8 | -41.9% |
| Other years only | 10 | 40 | +0.5% |
How were the comparison dates chosen?
The primary controls are November 14, November 21, December 5, and December 12 in the same year. Each is 7 or 14 days from November 28, so it falls on the same weekday.
None of these controls fell on an excluded holiday. We exclude holidays under the standard observed federal holiday rules. We also exclude Christmas Eve, December 26, and the Friday after Thanksgiving.
By five-year period, the primary differences are -13.9% for 2000–2004, -5.5% for 2005–2009, and -14.7% for 2010–2014.
To combine the years, we divide the summed target births by the summed annual control means. Then we subtract one and multiply by 100. The result is not an average of annual percentages.
Does the November 28 rank change over time?
Yes. We ranked 365 recurring dates by SSA births in each five-year period. November 28 placed #355 in 2000–2004, #227 in 2005–2009, and #356 in 2010–2014. The three ranks span 129 places.
The median span for all 365 recurring dates is 159 places. This span is below that median.
Each period has one weekend occurrence, so the weekend mix does not explain the movement.
November 28 was Thanksgiving or the day after in two years of 2000–2004, one year of 2005–2009, and two years of 2010–2014. The period with the fewest holiday years has the most common rank.
These ranks use raw birth counts. The ranking-stability study also compares annual shares and weekday-relative scores for every date.
Sources and limits
Baseline totals and ranks use FiveThirtyEight’s pinned U.S. birth files. We use CDC/NCHS for 1994–1999 and SSA for 2000–2014, so no year comes from both sources. Annual comparisons use SSA alone.
The source series have different administrative coverage. These records do not describe worldwide births, everyone alive today, or current birth rates.
The daily totals do not record delivery methods or scheduling decisions. Weekday matching does not remove every seasonal difference. Federal holiday rules identify calendar dates, not hospital schedules.
Use the November guide for the full month ranking. Compare the nearby November 27 and November 29 studies.
The Thanksgiving birth study follows every actual Thanksgiving.
The methodology explains ranks and shares. Use the birthday checker to compare another date.